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Importance of Philosophy & Logic in WWII Warplane Design

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Doc Edwards – Deming NM

The idea for this unique WWII story came from FASF Aviation News Scout, Doc Edwards, at left.

This story is about how a brilliant statistician and mathematician from Hungary, helped save countless American Fight Crews during WWII – all done from the comfort of his offices at Columbia University in Manhattan.

Abraham Wald (; Hungarian: Wald Ábrahám, Yiddish: אברהם וואַלד; (1902-10-31)31 October 1902 – (1950-12-13)13 December 1950) was a Hungarian/Hungarian Jewish mathematician who contributed to decision theory, geometry, and econometrics and founded the field of statistical sequential analysis. One of the more well-known statistical works of his during World War II was how to minimize the damage to bomber aircraft taking into account the military’s survivorship bias in his calculations.  That subjective bias was what was leading the military brass to the wrong conclusions about where to add armor to their warplanes, particularly to bombers.

Professor Abraham Wald, Ph.D. lecturing at Columbia University in New York City

Wald’s family home-schooled him until college. He graduated in mathematics from King Ferdinand I University in 1928 and next graduated from the University of Vienna with a Ph.D. in mathematics in 1931.

Wald’s mathematical capabilities were world-class, and he particularly excelled at turning abstract ideas into solid statistics.

Austria was not a good place to be for a foreigner in the 1930s, as the country was in economic and political turmoil. Despite his credentials, Wald struggled to find work in this environment, partly because he was foreign, and partly because he was Jewish.

Luckily for Wald, he was given a job by economist Oskar Morgenstern at the Austrian Institute for Economic Research. While he was here, he was invited to work at the Cowles Commission for Research in Economics in Colorado in the United States. At first, he wasn’t sure whether he should accept the invitation, but with the annexation of Austria into Nazi Germany in 1938, Wald quickly made up his mind to head for the U.S.

He had only been in Colorado for a few months when he received yet another offer, this time for a professorship of statistics at Columbia University in New York. He accepted the offer, moved to New York City, and became part of the Statistical Research Group (SRG) at the university.

The SRG was a group of incredibly intelligent experts in statistics that was assembled to solve military-related problems during WWII. W. Allen Wallis, the SRG’s director, said the group was “the most extraordinary group of statisticians ever organized, taking into account both number and quality.”

The group was hugely respected, and the results of its work were taken seriously by the military, who loaded aircraft’s ammunition in an order recommended by the SRG, for example. Naturally, all of the group were exceptionally bright, but none more so than Wald, with his brain fine-tuned for the abstract.

Wald’s particular abilities would soon come in handy.

Survivorship bias

With the war claiming many U.S. aircraft, the military wanted to increase the armor protection of their bombers to increase their survivability, but they were unsure of the best places to put this armor and were frankly unqualified to find out themselves.

Illustration of hypothetical damage pattern on a WW2 bomber. (Photo Credit: Martin Grandjean [vector], McGeddon [picture], Cameron Moll [concept] CC BY-SA 4.0)

Where do you go with such a specific issue? The Statistical Research Group, of course!

The group was given the task of analyzing the damage received by Allied aircraft from enemy fire, and recommending the best way to increase their chances of survival. It was here that Wald made massive bounds in “survivorship bias.”

When bombers returned from missions, they’d often come home covered with bullet holes. However, these bullet holes were not evenly distributed around the aircraft but were actually concentrated on the wings and fuselage, almost twice as much as places like the engines.

Why were bullets concentrating on the fuselage and wings? Were German pilots trained to aim there? Were they firing futuristic homing bullets? Military officers came to the seemingly obvious conclusion that the armor should be added in these areas, as after all, they were taking the most fire, right?

Not quite. Wald quickly realized what was happening, and the solution was simple.

Bullets holes weren’t found on areas like the engines because aircraft that had been shot here didn’t come home! Wald believed bullets were actually hitting the aircraft equally all over, but because the ones hit in the most vulnerable areas didn’t come home, the data incorrectly suggested that these areas weren’t being hit at all.

The only aircraft that could be examined were those that came home — the survivors. The aircraft that were being brought down weren’t available for inspection, thus creating the survivorship bias.

The massive amount of damage on bombers’ fuselages and wings was actually evidence that these areas did not need reinforcing, as they were clearly able to take a large amount of punishment. Therefore, as Wald concluded, the armor should be placed on the areas that seemingly received the least damage.

The military listened to Abraham Wald’s advice and began increasing armor protection over these more vulnerable areas. Statistics on how many lives this saved during the war or since then are unavailable, but there are likely many people around today that wouldn’t be if Wald hadn’t made his contributions to the survivorship bias.  The following 9-minute video by TJ3 History does a good job of illustrating Dr. Wald‘s work.

Like Amelia: But Only 19, She Successfully Circled the Globe

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An ultralight plane piloted by a young woman from Belgium took off from Albuquerque (ABQ), New Mexico, in the United States, on September 10, 2021, headed northward. But it was no ordinary flight. ABQ was but one of many stops on 19-year-old Zara Rutherford’s record-breaking attempt to fly solo (“Zolo” in urban slang) around the world.

It turns out that she succeeded, now holding the title of the youngest woman to achieve this feat in a single-engine aircraft, taking over from Shaesta Waiz, an American from Afghanistan, who circumnavigated the globe solo at age 30 in 2017.

Rutherford, who also holds British nationality, will dramatically cut the gap to the youngest male holder, Travis Ludlow, who was 18 years (and 150 days) old when he accomplished the same thing in July 2021.

The first woman to fly solo around the world was Geraldine ‘Jerrie’ Mock, a housewife from Columbus, Ohio. Mock completed the 23,103-mile flight in 29 days 11 hours 59 minutes, landing at Port Columbus Airport on April 17, 1964.

Rutherford’s aim with her solo circumnavigation flight in the two-seater Shark Aircraft was to reduce the gender gap in aviation, as well as in Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics (STEM) subjects.

“With this flight, I want to encourage girls and young women to pursue their dreams,” the aviatrix wrote on her website, Flyzolo.com. 

The 19-year-old pilot cites her inspirations as Lillian Bland, Bessie Coleman, Valentina Tereshkova, and Amelia Earhart. Not content with flying solo around the world, another one of Rutherford’s dreams is to become an astronaut.

Becky Lutte, Associate Professor in the Aviation Institute at the University of Nebraska at Omaha, noted that women represent less than 20% of the aviation workforce in most occupations, including only 5% of airline pilots and 2.5% of maintenance technicians.

“Outreach to young women is essential to closing the gender gap in aviation,” Lutte said.

The below composite video is 6:34 minutes long.

Here are some of the interesting data that summarizes here flight’s accomplishments.:

Aircraft used: The Shark, an Ultralite built-in Slovakia, Czech Republic.

Total distance covered in flight: 52,080.3 Miles (over twice the distance of Jerry Mock’s flight!)

Total time in flight: 200 hours

Landings: 71

Number of stops: 69, including 10 diversions to airfields other than planned

Returns to the same airfield from which departed: 2

Longest Leg: 2000 KM, or 1080 Nautical Miles (NM)

Longest Leg over water: 1861 KM or 1005 NM

Highest Altitude Flown: 13,800′ (Over Greenland)

Continents into which flown: 5

Countries into which flown: 31

Highest Temperature Experienced: 31 Degrees Celsius (87.8 Fahrenheit) in Indonesia

Lowest Temperature: -34 Celsius (- 29.2 degrees F)

Boeing’s Plan to Remake the F-15 Into a “Stealth” Fighter

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From Sandboxx,  January 21, 2022

Back in 2009, Boeing’s Silent Eagle aimed to make the world’s most prolific air superiority fighter into something more by injecting stealth into the F-15’s legendary DNA. The result may have been the most broadly capable F-15 the world had ever seen, delivered just in time to compete with what would become a foreign sales powerhouse, the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter.

Here, below, in a 17:21 long video, is a summary of that project and its potential outcome for the USAF.

USAF Goes Back To Sea After Long Hiatus from SA-16 Days

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USAF MC-130J Amphib Aircraft Is Coming . . . later this year.

From US Defense News – January 16, 2022

The C-130J is an incredibly versatile aircraft, and since its creation, it’s landed on rough fields, in arctic locations, and even an aircraft carrier.

Yet, it cannot land on water, which covers about 71% of the planet. As national strategic objectives shift focus to littoral regions, Air Force Special Operations Command (AFSOC) is advancing new approaches to expand the multi-mission platform’s runway independence and expeditionary capacity. In partnership with the Air Force Research Lab’s Strategic Development Planning and Experimentation (AFRL-SDPE) directorate, AFSOC is developing an MC-130J Commando II Amphibious Capability (MAC) to improve the platform’s support of seaborne special operations.

“The development of the MAC capability is the culmination of multiple lines of effort,” said Lt Col Josh Trantham, AFSOC Science, Systems, Technology, & Innovation (SST&I) Deputy Division Chief. “This capability allows the Air Force to increase placement and access for infiltration, exfiltration, and personnel recovery, as well as providing enhanced logistical capabilities for future competition and conflict.”

The development of a removable amphibious float modification for an MC-130J would enable “runway independent” operations, which, according to Trantham, would extend the global reach and survivability of the aircraft and Air Commandos. “Seaborne operations offer nearly unlimited water landing zones providing significant flexibility for the Joint Force,” Trantham said.

You can watch it right here, there is no need to leave the page for YouTube.  Please try and tolerate the automated voice-over used by US Defense News.  The content is worth overlooking the computerized voice. The following video is 8 minutes long.


McDonnell Douglas X-36, the Tailless Stealth Fighter

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The McDonnell Douglas X-36 Tailless Fighter Agility Research Aircraft was built in the late ‘90s in collaboration with NASA with the objective to reduce weight and drag while increasing range, maneuverability, and, most importantly, survivability. To achieve all these goals, they decided to get rid of the traditional empennage found on most aircraft, a feat that many contractors and government organizations had tried for decades. This short (10:24) video is courtesy of Dark Skies.

To achieve all these goals, they decided to get rid of the traditional empennage found on most aircraft, a feat that many contractors and government organizations had tried for decades. But that wasn’t its only impressive asset. Watch and see what else they did.

No need to “watch on YouTube,” since it is right here, embedded in your FASF webpage.

THE BOEING X-36, A SUPER MANEUVERABLE STEALTH FIGHTER || 2021

Now, you might ask, why have we changed the manufacturer’s name from McDonnell Douglas to Boeing?  It’s simple; if perchance you don’t know the answer: What happened?  McDonnell Douglas (MD) was bought out by Boeing in 1997, so all those MD programs and projects now became known as Boeing.  The following brief (3:51 min) video is narrated by computer AI, so see if you can tolerate the mechanical voice, and learn some more about this unusual and radical tailless-designed fighter. The following clip is from Warthog Defense.

Here, below, is another X-36 Video clip on the strange-looking research fighter, courtesy of AviationDesigns-MG.  It is 4:35 long.

The X-36 Was a Crazily Maneuverable Stealth Fighter. Why Wasn’t it Built?

And, next, below and produced by “Weapons of the World,” let’s see the answer to the above question: Why didn’t the radical new design get produced?  This video is only 1:55 long.

Ft Worth Aviation Museum – Anniversary of the FAS Stopover

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One of our vigilant members saw this item on our FAS’ history and brought it to our attention.  An interesting anecdote, along with some new archival photos of the Squadron’s stopover in Ft. Worth TX over a century ago.  We think you’ll find it an interesting, although, short (7:29) video.

 

 

It took them 104 years, but the Army finally flew back home !

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In February of 1917, the intrepid pioneer pilots of the First Aero Squadron (FAS), stationed at Columbus for 11 months, were ordered back east to be transported to the raging inferno in Europe that became known as WWI.

Since that time, the Army Air Corps, later to be known as the Army Air Forces, fought and won our way through another World War, this time the second global conflict.

Shortly after WWII ended, in 1947, Congress formed the United States Air Force (USAF), an entirely new and independent branch of the U.S. Military, but it did not abandon the Army Aviation Branch.

When the USAF began to grow its ranks, the now much smaller Army Aviation Branch, likewise did not sit still but also began its own regrowth.  Today, it has more pilots, almost entirely ROTARY WING, aviators, than does the USAF, although its inventory of Fixed Wing assets remains quite small.

Not since February 1917, 104 years ago, has the US Army flown into or out of their historic airfield in the small border town of Columbus, NM.

However, last month, on Tuesday, the 14th of December, that all changed, when the 501st General Support Aviation Battalion, stationed at Biggs Army Airfield (adjoining Fort Bliss, in El Paso, Texas), was led into the old Army FAS Airfield at Columbus by its commander, Lt. Colonel Jonathan Guinn.

Colonel Guinn personally flew the number 1 Boeing CH-47 Chinook twin-rotor helicopter into the Airfield, immediately followed by the 2nd Chinook.  Upon landing, the heavy helicopters discharged some 60 young Army Aviators, who then walked from the Airfield into town, to explore their history in the two museums dedicated to the 1916 Punitive Expedition, which as most of you know, became to first instance of sustained combat flying by the fledging new Army flying squadron.

Here, below, you will see that historic event from last December unfold by way of videos of their arrival – – – and of their departure – – – along with many (78) photos of the Airmen and Women who took part in the event.

Click on the below photo’s centered boxed arrow to start the PowerPoint Show of the historic event, but remember, that, except for the opening and closing short videos, the other pictures will change to the next frame at regular intervals of  8 seconds per slide. Again, the entire show has 78 separate photos and two separate videos.

We suggest you use FULL-SCREEN for viewing since the photos are otherwise quite small.

 Should you want to stop the show at any point, simply use your computer’s space bar,  To restart the presentation, then tap the space bar once again.  Remember, the two end piece videos are just under 2:00 minutes each.  The entire show, if not paused, is only 14:16 long.

 

 

 

RONALD REAGAN NARRATES: “THE FIGHT FOR THE SKY”

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 US Army Air Forces Logo

From Larry Dwyer’s  Aviation History Online Museum:  The Fight for the Sky, narrated by Ronald Reagan, is a film commissioned by the US government to highlight the victories of the Allied air forces over Europe prior to the Normandy invasion. The film depicts Allied airmen at their base in East Anglia, called to strike deep into Germany’s industrial Ruhr valley. Captured German footage is also shown to prove that the enemy was just as determined to stop the attacks as the Allies were to carry them out.

The On-Line Museum website creator, Larry Dwyer,  previously worked for Trans World Airlines at JFK airport for 27 years. He held positions as an Airframe & Powerplant Mechanic (A&P), Aircraft Inspector (AI) and Crew Chief and began working on Boeing 747s when he was nineteen years old. Later in life, Larry received his bachelor’s degree in history from Empire State College which is affiliated with the State University of New York (SUNY). He also works as a freelance writer and photographer for the Sandisfield Times in Massachusetts.  Larry’s website is listed under our LINKS page within the Museum category, specifically: “Aviation History Online Museum.”

Here is the 1945 black and white archived film, “The Fight for the Sky.” The film does a fairly legitimate job of depicting the lives and experiences of our Army Pilots as they fought and then tried to relax during WWII.  It is 19:38 in length.  Click anywhere on the cover photo to start the video, and then the lower right corner for full screen viewing.

For those of you who would like to see the film’s full version, narrated by another voice-over (not Ronald Reagan) which is some 41 minutes long, here it is:

HOW TO LAND A STEARMAN BY THE SEAT OF YOUR PANTS

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Fully Restored AAC PT-17 Stearman

In this age of “Fly-by-Wire,” it seems almost reactionary to go back in time when we learned to fly by the “seat of our pants.”  The fearless pioneers of the First Aero Squadron certainly were accomplished at that fine art of flying by feel and sight, particularly since they had next to no instruments inside their open air cockpits to help them out.  As it was often well put for many years after they came back from the “Great War to End all Wars” (WWI), “Flying was an art that requires a keen sense of spacial orientation, feel and sight.”

US Navy version of the Stearman   CLICK ON ANY PHOTO TO SEE IT FULL SIZE AND IN HIGH RESOLUTION.

That’s how your Webmaster learned to fly in 1944, but more on that in a later post.  Although I sometimes used a Stearman to fly aerobatics back then, I much preferred the much rarer biplane, the Waco UPF-7 (see below), which was both easier to land and far more maneuverable in the air.

Brand new Waco YMF-5 (UPF-7)

The Waco is so beautiful a classic of that bygone era, that they have been reproducing brand new Wacos now for years.  Although not tagged the UPF-7, they are just a later version, which looks the same. The new designation is Waco YMF-5. They are being manufactured in Battle Creek, MI.  Take a peek at their impressive website right here.

Not let’s get into the official US NAVAL Training film, entitled “Military Flight Training – PRIMARY FLIGHT TRAINING – LANDINGS”  . . . or HOW TO LAND A STEARMAN.  This film is 13:03 long.  CLICK ON THE VIDEO PHOTO TO START IT GOING . . . AND ON THE LOWER RIGHT CORNER’S ‘OPEN-TO-FULL-SIZE’ TO ENJOY IT IN FULL SCALE.

Below is another US Navy Flight Training film from 1945 with the indomitable Stearman once again its central figure. This last film is longer, 34:47 minutes.  Most of those Navy Stearmans were painted a bright yellow from propeller to tail, and wing tip to wing tip.

This bright color was not just practical, insofar as it made them easier to see when airborne, but it also led them to be given the nickname of the “YELLOW PERIL!”  To start them, a ground crew had to stand on the lower wing and energetically crank (just like many automobile of the day – which had hand cranks for starting) the Inertial Starter until the flywheel came up to enough speed to turn over the big radial 225 HP engine.

At the airport at which I worked, which was only miles from Glenview Naval Air Station (NAS), I was often saddled with that task of cranking the Stearman’s Inertial Starter.  A lot of healthy exercise.  Often, on their first solo flight, the new Navy pilots would land at our civilian airport to grab a cup of coffee at our restaurant.  Although the Navy frowned on this practice, the happy new aviators couldn’t seem to pass up the opportunity to have some extra fun . . . and good hot cup of “Java.”

After WWII, these ships were widely sold across the country, mostly for use as crop dusters, but many went into civilian hands in General Aviation, much as did the Jenny’s of WWI.  Most every Air Show had at least one Stearman with a Twin Wasp 450 HP engine hanging up front to give extraordinarily capabilities at aerobatics.  Crop dusters across the globe still use this WWII biplane as their principal aerial applicator.  Here below is some interesting data on the various models of this classic Military Training Biplane.

STEARMAN VARIANTS

(Data from: United States Navy aircraft since 1911, Boeing aircraft since 1916)

The U.S. Army Air Forces ‘Kaydet’ had three different designations based on its power plant:

PT-13 with a Lycoming R-680 engine. Production was 2,141 in total for all models.

PT-13 Initial production, R-680-B4B engine, 26 built

PT-13A R-680-7 engine, 92 delivered 1937–38, Model A-75

PT-13B R-680-11 engine, 255 delivered 1939–40

PT-13C Six PT-13Bs were modified for instrument flying.

PT-13D PT-13As equipped with the R-680-17 engine, 353 delivered, Model E-75

PT-17 With a Continental R-670-5 engine, 3,519 were delivered.

PT-17A 18 PT-17s were equipped with blind-flying instrumentation.

PT-17B Three PT-17s were equipped with agricultural spraying equipment for pest control.

PT-18 PT-13 with a Jacobs R-755 engine, 150 built

PT-18A Six PT-18s were fitted with blind-flying instrumentation.

PT-27 Canadian PT-17: This designation was given to 300 aircraft supplied under Lend-Lease to the Royal Canadian Air Force.

The U.S. Navy had several versions, including:

NS Up to 61 delivered, powered by surplus 220 hp (164 kW) Wright J-5 Whirlwind

N2S Known colloquially as the “Yellow Peril” from its overall-yellow paint scheme

N2S-1 R-670-14 engine, 250 delivered to the U.S. Navy

N2S-2 R-680-8 engine, 125 delivered to the U.S. Navy

N2S-3 R-670-4 engine, 1,875 delivered to the U.S. Navy

N2S-4 99 U.S. Army aircraft diverted to the U.S. Navy, plus 577 newly built aircraft

N2S-5 R-680-17 engine, 1,450 delivered to the U.S. Navy

Stearman 70 Original prototype, powered by 215 hp (160 kW) Lycoming radial engine, temporary designation XPT-943 for evaluation

Model 73 Initial production version, 61 built for U.S. Navy as NS plus export variants

Model 73L3 Version for the Philippines, powered by 200 hp (150 kW) R-680-4 or R-680C1 engines, seven built

Model A73B1 Seven aircraft for Cuban Air Force powered by 235 hp (175 kW) Wright R-790 Whirlwind, delivered 1939–1940[7]

Model A73L3 Improved version for the Philippines, three built[8]

Stearman 75 (or X75) Evaluated by the U.S. Army as a primary trainer, the X75L3 became the PT-13 prototype. Variants of the 75 formed the PT-17 family.

Stearman 76 Export trainer and armed versions of the 75

Stearman 90 and 91 (or X90 ano X91) productionized metal-frame version, became the XBT-17

Stearman XPT-943 The X70 evaluated at Wright Field

 

WHAT HAPPENED TO THE BOEING 747 MISSILE LAUNCHER?

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Here are a series of relatively short videos depicting the use of the Boeing wide-body 747 as a heavy duty multiple missile packing airship – or as it would have been called: the Boeing 747 the Boeing 747 CMCA (Cruise Missile Carrier Aircraft). 

The 747’s (747 YA-1) role as a laser-shooting platform is also explored in the final video below.

Why would the USAF have even considered this now generally termed “old” commercial jet in such roles?  Even back when this concept was first promoted by Boeing, the Jumbo Jet was already almost ten years old.  The reason the idea was seriously explored is simple:

The cost would be substantially less that it would be for a new platform designed specifically for such purposes. 

Not only would the original modification costs of the highly reliable airliner be significantly less that a brand new aircraft with a specially designed air frame, but the upkeep and maintenance would also be a major cost saving move for the Air Force.

Where the number of modern USAF bombers is counted in the low hundreds, there have now been over 1500 747s built – – – – and there are – and were – also spare parts depots already found all over the globe. Additionally, the 747 series had an extremely long operating range.  The latest version has a range of over 7,000 miles, or 11,265 kilometers.

As with any manufactured product, the more that are made, the lower the unit price can be set.

So, without further ado, let’s explore these “Queen of the Skies” 747 concepts:

First, below, is a 13:53 long video on the 747 CMCA, or multi-missile platform:

Next, below, is a very short, 4:28 minute exploration of the CMCA:

Next, is another video, 15:25 long, entitled, “72 Missiles At Once! – 747 Cruise Missile Carrier:”

And now, below, view the Queen of the Skies in its role as a lethal laser platform, one that, unlike the multi-missile launching CMCA 747, is most likely very much still in service at this time.  Here is that Boeing 747 YAL-1‘s story.  The video is only 5:06 minutes long.